Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.468554 0.539744 0.616701 0.705899 0.806254 0.915484 1.043181
2025-06-08 0.368594 0.462903 0.572537 0.708728 0.872641 1.062794 1.299259
2025-06-15 0.309737 0.421646 0.560768 0.744802 0.980003 1.268518 1.646930
2025-06-22 0.240889 0.356083 0.509339 0.725134 1.017593 1.396129 1.918335
2025-06-29 0.191460 0.307043 0.471361 0.717055 1.069041 1.547998 2.240165
2025-07-06 0.151049 0.262941 0.432869 0.702341 1.109611 1.690779 2.568097
2025-07-13 0.127891 0.240434 0.422142 0.726196 1.208397 1.926165 3.051998
2025-07-20 0.104909 0.213376 0.399692 0.728600 1.275487 2.123605 3.503762
2025-07-27 0.088831 0.194869 0.388055 0.746623 1.369478 2.372267 4.059378
2025-08-03 0.075719 0.178925 0.378022 0.765761 1.467764 2.638335 4.669567
2025-08-10 0.059891 0.153569 0.345875 0.740176 1.486019 2.776196 5.087945
2025-08-17 0.046407 0.129527 0.311384 0.704171 1.480320 2.872439 5.446321
2025-08-24 0.037751 0.114561 0.293363 0.699320 1.535388 3.086775 6.040000
2025-08-31 0.030342 0.100369 0.274004 0.688477 1.577819 3.283965 6.625284
2025-09-07 0.026275 0.093849 0.270952 0.712461 1.693709 3.630187 7.514411
2025-09-14 0.020419 0.080031 0.246961 0.684956 1.699078 3.766866 8.029762
2025-09-21 0.016303 0.069934 0.229947 0.670562 1.730475 3.957834 8.666635
2025-09-28 0.012859 0.060571 0.212443 0.651487 1.748558 4.123673 9.270097
2025-10-05 0.011126 0.056674 0.209605 0.669575 1.854702 4.482254 10.288196
2025-10-12 0.009199 0.051100 0.200245 0.668439 1.914981 4.749456 11.143467
2025-10-19 0.007910 0.047594 0.196536 0.682413 2.014334 5.111328 12.225557
2025-10-26 0.006840 0.044532 0.193511 0.697878 2.119626 5.496405 13.387726
2025-11-02 0.005333 0.038408 0.177932 0.672590 2.115766 5.633584 14.028102